Modal Share Dalam Demand Forecasting di Bandara Internasional Jawa Barat (BIJB) Kertajati Majalengka

Eny Yuliawati

Abstract


Provinsi Jawa Barat, dengan wilayah daratan seluas 3.709.528,44 Ha dan jumlah penduduk sebanyak 35,72 juta jiwa, memiliki potensi sumber daya alam maupun sumber daya manusia yang sangat maju. Potensi tersebut tentu membutuhkan dukungan infrastruktur transportasi, salah satunya adalah dengan keberadaan bandara yang memadai. Saat ini keberadaan Bandara Husein Sastranegara semakin padat, sehingga mendorong Pemerintah Daerah untuk menginisiasi pembangunan bandara baru di Kertajati Majalengka. Penelitian ini bermaksud mengembangkan model demand forecasting berdasarkan modal share dalam rangka mendukung akselerasi pembangunan Bandara di Kertajati Jawa Barat. Analisa prediksi permintaan penumpang ini didasarkan pada modal share data Origin-Destination di 9 wilayah kabupaten/kota yang diasumsikan berada dalam cakupan pelayanan Bandara Kertajati dengan mempertimbangkan pengaruh variabel ekternal berupa variabel sosioekonomi pada masing-masing wilayah prediksi. Selain itu pendekatan teknik stated preference juga digunakan untuk mengetahui preferensi penumpang angkutan udara di Bandara Husein Sastra Negara dengan adanya Bandara Baru di Kertajati. Teknik stated preference tersebut mempertimbangkan atribut-atribut seperti travel time, travel cost dan aksesibilitas. Hasil penelitian model demand forecasting penumpang angkutan udara berdasarkan pendekatan model share dan teknik stated preference diharapkan dapat digunakan untuk menganalisa prediksi potensi penumpang angkutan udara di bandara baru sehingga dapat mendukung akselerasi pembangunan BIJB di Kertajati Majalengka Jawa Barat.


[Demand Forecasting of Modal Share of Bandara Internasional Jawa Barat (BJIB) in Kertajati Majalengka] The province of West Java, with 3,709,528.44 hectares area and 35.72 million population, has the great potential for natural resources and human resources. These potentials would require the support of transport infrastructure, one of which is the existence of a proper airport infrastructure. Currently the airport of Husein Sastranegara Bandung is getting more congested, thus encouraging of the local governments to initiate the development of the new airport in Kertajati Majalengka. The purpose of this study is to develop the demand forecasting model based on the modal share in order to support the acceleration of the new airport development in Kertajati in the West Java. The analysis of passenger demand forecasting is based on the modal share with review of Origin-Destination Data in 9 regions that are assumed covered by the new airport in Kertajati and also considering the influence of external variables such as socioeconomic variables in each region. The stated preference technique is used for analysis with the purpose to find the preferences of air passengers in Husein Sastranegara Airport if there is a new airport in Kertajati. The stated preference technique considering the attributes of travel time, travel cost and accessibility. The research result is expected to be used in analyzing the forecasting of the air transportation potential passenger in the new airport so that it can support the development acceleration of BJIB in Kertajati Majalengka.


Keywords


potential demand; bandara baru; preferensi penumpang udara.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abed S.  Y. , O. Ba-Fail  A., and  Jasimuddin S. M.(2001).  An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143-148.

Balitbanghub (2011). Asal Tujuan Transportasi Nasional. Balitbang Kementerian Perhubungan, Jakarta-Indonesia.

BPS (2015). Data Produk Domestik Regonal Bruto dan Demografi, Jakarta.

Bruton, M.J., 1985, Introduction to Transportation Planning, Hutchinson & Co Ltd, London.

Carson R.T. et. al., (2010) Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel. International Journal of Forecasting.

Cochran, W.G., and G.M.Cox (1991). Experimental Designs. New York, Wiley.

Pearmain, D. et.al., (1991) Stated Preference Techniques: A Guide to Practice, Second Edition, Steer Davies Gleave and Hague Consulting Group.

Pemprov Jabar, 2016. Pemerintah pusat ambil alih pembangunan Bandara Kertajati. 15 Januari 2016.  Website: BIJB.co.id.

Masterplan Bandara Internasional Jawa Barat, 2005. Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Barat, Bandung-Jabar.

Neelu Seetaram (2010). Computing airfare elasticities or opening Pandora’s box. Research in Transportation Economics 26(1), p. 27-36.

Wang Kung-Jeng and Hong Wan-Chung, 2011. Competitive advantage analysis and strategy formulation of airport city development-The case of Taiwan. Journal of Transport Policy 18 (2011) 276-288.

Yeo Gi-Tae et.al., 2013. Evaluating teh competitiveness of aerotropolises in East Asia. Journal of Air Transport Management 32 (2013) 24-31.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25104/wa.v42i4.247.173-184

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

WARTAARDHIA Indexed by:

      Infobase Index  Logo IPI  Home  

Copyright of Warta Ardhia (e-ISSN:2528-4045, p-ISSN:0215-9066) Sekretariat Jurnal Transportasi Udara, Jl. Medan Merdeka Timur No. 5 A Jakarta Pusat 10110. Tlp. (021) 34832944, Fax. (021) 34832968. Email:litbang_udara@yahoo.co.id; warta.ardhia@gmail.com.

    Creative Commons License 
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Web
  Analytics View My Stats